Disaster prediction?
Hello Tom, do you have any updates on your core theory on the possibility of Earth exploding because of global warming?
I think the last update you put was on February of 2005, in which you linked an article where NASA admitted the Earth is absorbing more sunlight then releasing out into space. So can we expect updates to come soon?
InfoSource
Major and/or global seismic/tectonic adjustments are most likely to occur within a few days of so-called High Astronomical Tides (like 30 January or 28 February 2006 for example).
Overheating of the planetary interior causes the eccentricity of the planetary core to increase (see this article for details). Eccentric core is attracted by Moon and the Sun and actually moves in the planetary interior.
During so-called king tides (High Astronomical Tides) both Sun and the Moon are closest to Earth and this increases the likelyhood of the moving planetary core to initiate major tectonic activity.
For example, if there is a magnitude 9 earthquake in Antarctica and glaciers slide into oceans - 80% of our so-called "civilization" can be gone in just 3 days.
Tom
although i believe you my father has a few arguements against your theory of the heating of the core which i try to explain to himmaybe you have an answer to them so he can understand better what is happening
he says:
- there should be more heat in our atmosphere than in the core to have an effect on it to cause more volcanic activity
- the sun doesn't have the amount of energy/heat to influence the interior of the earth
- it takes maybe a hundred years for lava to travel from the core to the earth
he says it's the increase of junction of atoms in the core causing more volcanoshe seems also to think that there is no increase of earthquakes and volcanos and that it's coincidental if you look at over a bigger timespanhe's skeptic but i'm sure you can convince him
Yonah
Consider this:
1. Earth observed from space absorbs more Solar energy than it is able to radiate back to space. This is not a theory. This is observable fact. NASA knows it for many years, but this fact became public only in January 2005.
2. Earth's interior generates heat. Most of this heat is due to nuclear decay of various isotopes. This is not a theory. This is a fact. Earth's interior is hot.
3. Heat generated inside Earth can only escape via Earth's surface. This is not a theory. This is a fact.
4. Since Earth absorbs more Solar energy than is able to radiate back to space (fact 1) heat generated inside the planet is trapped there. It cannot escape. Hence the planetary interior temperatures grow. This is the only possible consequence of facts 1,2 and 3.
5. Main danger for humanity is not the climate change, but overheating of the planetary interior. Since atmospheric pollution grows daily and no one does anything about it - the catastrophe is inevitable.
Tom
Isn't it so that according your theory venus would have exploded a long time ago?
Yonah
Try to understand the difference between heat and the temperature, It is not subtle.
Whether a planet cools down or heats up internally depends primarily on how much heat its surface can escape to space per unit of time.
If the amount of heat escaping into space is larger than the amount of heat delivered to the planetary surface from outside (mainly from the Sun) the planet cools down internally. This is because planetary interiors are sources of heat. If the amount of heat escaping into space is smaller than the amount of heat delivered to the planetary surface from outside - the planetary interior accumulates heat and its internal temperatures grow.
Now, the heat can escape from the planetary surface to space ONLY by radiation. The amount (the rate) of this heat escaping by radiation is proportional to the 4-th power of the surface temperature. Hence, all other things equal, if the temperature of the planetary surface doubles - the amount of heat radiated to space increases 16 times.
Try to find what is the average temperature on Venus, and on Earth, take the temperature ratio and calculate the 4-th power of this ratio. You will see that Venus radiates many times more heat to space than Earth does.
Hence, Venus interior may in fact be cooling down... To verify what is really going on you need to compare the amount of heat Venus receives from Sun with the amount of heat it radiates to space.
Earth's interior overheats, because NASA measurements prove that Earth's surface absorbs more Solar energy than it is able to radiate back. Ask NASA for data about Venus and you will know for sure if Venus cools down or heats up.
The fate of a planet can be determined by observing its surface from outside.
Tom
This is from NASA, care to comment?
'The atmosphere is extremely complex in its behavior. Because of this, finding the correct explanation for the behavior we observe is complex as well. Virtually all scientists will agree that a doubling of the amount of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere should have some effect on the temperature of the Earth. But it is much less certain how or if we will recognize the effects of this increase. There are several reasons:
* First, the influence of a man-made doubling of the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is small compared to the Earth's natural cooling rate, on the order of only a percent.
* Second, there is a much more important greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, namely water vapor. Water vapor over the Earth is extremely variable, both in space and in time.
* Third, the ways in which clouds and water vapor feed back and ultimately influence the temperature of the Earth are, at best, poorly understood.
* Fourth, while the whole Earth is indeed in a state that scientists describe as 'radiative equilibrium,' where the incoming sunlight equals the outgoing infrared radiation to provide a roughly constant overall temperature, the surface is far from this radiative balance condition. Evaporation and convection processes in the atmosphere transport heat from the surface to the upper troposphere, where it can be much more efficiently radiated into space since it is above most of the greenhouse-trapping water vapor. So in short, it is this convective overturning of the atmosphere - poorly represented in computer models of global warming - that primarily determines the temperature distribution of the surface and upper troposphere, not radiation balance.'
Beto
The actual OBSERVABLE FACT is that Earth is no longer in radiative equilibrium - for many years and possibly decades. Observed from space Earth absorbs more incoming sunlight than is able to radiate back. Please read the previous 2 sentences again and try to understand that they refer to Earth in its entirety, including the interior and all parts of the atmosphere. The whole lot overheats. Since Earth's interior generates heat - the planetary centre has to overheat faster than anything else on Earth - there is simply no other possibility...
Lamenting about insufficient understanding of the atmosphere only diverts people's attention from this most important point and is likely to be a result of censorship or political machinations.
Tom
